The NHL’s free-agency frenzy is in full swing, and ESPN’s instant grades are already separating the smart money from the cap-crushing mistakes. The league’s top GMs reshaped rosters on Day 1 of 2026 free agency, but not every move passes the fit test. From franchise-altering contracts to overpriced band-aids, the early grades reveal which teams maximized their cap space and which ones may live to regret their decisions.
The Toronto Maple Leafs landed the biggest fish of the day, signing center Connor McDavid to an eight-year, $96 million contract. The deal averages $12 million annually and includes a full no-movement clause, locking McDavid in Toronto through 2034. 2 million, pushing them perilously close to the $95 million ceiling.
While McDavid’s production justifies the cost, the roster around him remains a question mark, especially with core defensemen like Mark Giordano and Morgan Rielly aging into the final years of their deals. The Edmonton Oilers, McDavid’s former team, responded by inking winger Kyle Connor to a seven-year, $77 million pact. The $11 million AAV keeps Connor in Edmonton but raises concerns about long-term flexibility, as the Oilers’ core—led by Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid—enters the final stretch of their prime.
5 million in projected cap space for 2027-28, leaving little room for mid-season reinforcements. On the defensive side, the Colorado Avalanche signed Norris Trophy finalist Cale Makar to a seven-year, $84 million extension, locking him up through 2033. The $12 million AAV makes Makar the highest-paid defenseman in league history, but the Avalanche’s cap outlook remains manageable with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen carrying the offensive load.
The deal’s structure includes a modified no-trade clause, giving Makar control over his destination while ensuring stability in Denver. ESPN’s grades reflect the disparity between smart spending and reckless commitments. The Maple Leafs earned an A+ for landing McDavid, but analysts warn the roster construction around him could stunt their Cup window.
The Oilers received a B- for the Connor deal, with concerns about future cap crunches outweighing the short-term boost. The Avalanche earned an A for Makar’s extension, praised for both value and fit within a championship-caliber core. The seismic shift of McDavid from Edmonton to Toronto fundamentally alters the competitive landscape of the Atlantic Division.
For the Oilers, pivoting to Kyle Connor is a calculated risk to maintain offensive relevance, but replacing a generational talent is an impossible task. Toronto’s aggressive pursuit signals a departure from their previous conservative cap management, gambling that McDavid’s singular brilliance can overcome the structural deficiencies that have plagued their playoff runs. This move forces the rest of the division into a panic mode, accelerating trade deadlines and forcing rival GMs to overpay for talent just to keep pace.
Colorado’s extension of Makar demonstrates a disciplined approach to asset management, securing a cornerstone without sacrificing the depth required for a deep playoff run. Conversely, the top-heavy structures in Toronto and Edmonton illustrate the dangers of allocating disproportionate cap shares to forwards, leaving blue lines exposed and goaltending vulnerable. As the salary cap continues its gradual climb, the teams that built sustainable ecosystems rather than collections of high-priced stars will likely be the ones lifting the Stanley Cup in June.
The financial architecture of these deals exposes a widening philosophical divide among contenders. The Oilers’ Kyle Connor deal, while lucrative, locks in $11 million AAV for seven years at a time when the cap is projected to rise only modestly. This risks turning Edmonton’s roster into a house of cards once Draisaitl and McDavid decline, even if Connor remains elite.
Toronto’s cap crunch forces GM Brad Treliving to make tough choices—potentially moving out high-salaried role players or risking compliance issues—while Colorado’s balanced approach with Makar ensures they can still add complementary pieces without overcommitting. The ripple effects extend beyond the standings. The Maple Leafs’ cap situation forces them to address their blue line, where Giordano and Rielly’s contracts are expiring and their replacements will command premium dollars.
Edmonton’s lack of maneuverability could force a rebuild sooner than expected if Draisaitl or McDavid’s production dips, leaving Connor as the lone marquee forward. Colorado, meanwhile, is positioned to chase another Cup with its top-tier trio intact, but the Makar extension’s no-trade clause adds long-term certainty that could deter potential suitors eyeing him in future trade windows. NHL insiders are already dissecting the ripple effects.
Toronto’s cap situation forces GM Brad Treliving to make tough choices, while Edmonton’s lack of maneuverability could force a rebuild sooner than expected. Colorado, meanwhile, is positioned to chase another Cup with its top-tier trio intact. The early grades suggest that patience and roster balance matter more than headline-grabbing contracts.
The Avalanche’s deal structure for Makar includes a modified no-trade clause that prevents Colorado from moving him without his consent, a rarity for a defenseman. This clause not only secures Makar’s long-term future in Denver but also signals the franchise’s commitment to building around its core rather than flipping assets for short-term gains. It contrasts sharply with Toronto’s no-movement clause for McDavid, which, while locking in a generational talent, also eliminates any potential trade leverage for the Maple Leafs in future deadlines.
The Oilers’ cap sheet, now burdened by Connor’s $11 million AAV, leaves little flexibility for addressing other roster holes. With Draisaitl and McDavid aging into the final years of their primes, Edmonton’s window to contend may be narrower than anticipated. The Connor deal, while a strong offensive addition, does not address the defensive or goaltending deficiencies that have plagued the Oilers in recent playoffs, raising questions about whether the team can sustain its contender status without a more balanced approach. Read at ESPN
Why this matters
Free agency is the NHL’s ultimate stress test for GMs. A single misstep can derail a franchise for years, while a well-timed signing can vault a team into contention. The 2026 class shows that cap management and roster fit are just as critical as the player acquired. Teams that overpay for role players or lock in aging stars risk squandering their window, while those who prioritize flexibility and upside may find themselves in the mix for years to come. The grades aren’t just numbers—they’re a roadmap to success or regret. The Avalanche’s disciplined approach with Makar underscores the value of building around a core without mortgaging the future, while Toronto’s and Edmonton’s top-heavy structures highlight the risks of prioritizing star power over balance.
Frequently asked
Which team landed the biggest free-agent signing of 2026?
The Toronto Maple Leafs signed Connor McDavid to an eight-year, $96 million contract, the largest deal of the opening day of free agency.
How does McDavid’s contract affect the Maple Leafs’ cap situation?
McDavid’s $12 million AAV pushes Toronto’s 2026-27 cap hit to $92.2 million, leaving just $2.8 million in projected cap space before roster adjustments.
What grade did ESPN give the Oilers for signing Kyle Connor?
ESPN graded the Oilers’ Kyle Connor deal as a B-, citing long-term cap concerns despite the short-term offensive boost.
Why did the Avalanche extend Cale Makar to a seven-year, $84 million deal?
Colorado locked up Makar through 2033 as the highest-paid defenseman in league history, prioritizing stability alongside Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen.
Which team earned the highest grade from ESPN on Day 1?
The Colorado Avalanche received an A for Cale Makar’s extension, praised for value and fit within a championship core.
How does the no-trade clause in Makar’s contract impact the Avalanche’s long-term plans?
The modified no-trade clause in Makar’s deal prevents Colorado from moving him without his consent, signaling the franchise’s commitment to building around its core rather than flipping assets.
