Eric Karabell’s ESPN fantasy baseball column is flashing red on two July breakout candidates: Tampa Bay’s offense and Detroit’s Tarik Skubal. Karabell’s crystal-ball column teases whether the Rays could finish July with two top-10 hitters, a scenario that would reshape fantasy lineups overnight. Tampa Bay already ranks among MLB’s most potent offenses, but Karabell’s take suggests the surge could extend deeper into the roster than most expect.
The Rays’ core—Yandy Díaz, Randy Arozarena, and Wander Franco—remains elite, but the column hints at secondary bats like José Siri or Curtis Mead joining the elite tier by month’s end. The Rays’ offensive explosion isn’t just about the stars; it’s about the supporting cast. Players like Isaac Paredes and Harold Ramírez have quietly posted OPS+ numbers above 120 this month, while the team’s collective wRC+ of 128 ranks third in MLB.
This depth means even a single injury won’t crater the lineup’s production, a luxury most teams can’t claim. The Rays’ offensive resurgence coincides with a broader league-wide trend: teams with balanced lineups are outperforming those reliant on one or two stars. Tampa Bay’s approach—mixing high-contact hitters with power threats—mirrors the Astros’ blueprint, which has kept Houston atop the AL West despite injuries to key players.
The Rays’ platoon splits also reveal a tactical edge: they post a 131 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this month, the best in MLB, while holding steady at 118 against lefties. That balance forces pitchers to adjust constantly, a strategy that’s paying dividends in fantasy scoring where consistency trumps volatility. On the mound, Skubal is the other name Karabell is pounding the table for.
98 ERA over his last eight starts, striking out 68 batters in 50 innings while walking just 12. 1% strikeout rate over that span is elite, and Karabell’s column frames Skubal as a pitcher on the verge of a full-blown breakout. If Skubal maintains this pace, he could vault into the top tier of fantasy starters before the All-Star break.
Skubal’s recent dominance is part of a broader trend among young pitchers who’ve refined their secondary offerings. His slider, in particular, has become a putaway pitch, generating a 38% whiff rate over his last eight starts. 190 wOBA against it during that span.
Skubal’s surge also reflects a shift in how fantasy managers evaluate pitchers. Traditionally, strikeout-heavy arms dominated, but Skubal’s ability to limit walks and induce weak contact—his ground-ball rate has climbed to 48% in July—adds another layer of reliability. 2 mph, further cements his status as a must-own asset.
The Tigers’ rotation has been a revolving door this season, but Skubal’s consistency makes him a cornerstone for fantasy lineups willing to bet on stability over boom-or-bust upside. Reactions to Karabell’s column have been swift. 2 mph) align with Karabell’s breakout thesis.
Some managers are already moving Skubal into their top-15 starters, while others are stashing multiple Rays bats as trade chips. What’s next: Fantasy managers should monitor Skubal’s next start—July 3 against the White Sox—and Tampa Bay’s series against the Orioles (July 5-7) for further signals. If Skubal fans 10+ in his next outing and the Rays’ offense continues its rampage, the July trade market will shift overnight.
The Rays’ series against the Orioles is particularly critical, as Baltimore’s pitching staff ranks in the bottom third of MLB in ERA, making it a prime opportunity for Tampa Bay to further pad its offensive résumé. The Orioles series also tests the Rays’ ability to sustain their offensive explosion against a team that’s been one of MLB’s stingiest in runs allowed this season. 50 and induce ground balls at elite rates.
If the Rays’ hitters feast on this staff, it’ll validate Karabell’s thesis that their lineup depth is translating into real-world dominance—not just fantasy-friendly matchups. Read at ESPN MLB
Why this matters
Fantasy baseball success is often decided by who acts first on breakout talent. Karabell’s column identifies two trends—Tampa Bay’s offensive explosion and Skubal’s surge—that could deliver a decisive edge in July leagues. Managers who act early on these candidates will gain roster flexibility and scoring advantages before the rest of the league catches on. The Rays’ lineup depth means even a single injury won’t crater the lineup’s production, while Skubal’s refined pitch mix suggests his dominance isn’t a fluke. These aren’t just hot streaks; they’re sustainable advantages in a league where every edge counts. The league-wide shift toward balanced lineups and pitcher reliability further amplifies the value of these trends, making them must-monitor for fantasy managers chasing championships.
Frequently asked
Who is Eric Karabell and why should fantasy managers listen to him?
Eric Karabell is a senior fantasy baseball writer for ESPN with a track record of identifying breakout talent before it explodes. His columns often highlight under-the-radar trends that savvy managers exploit for league-winning moves.
Why are the Rays’ hitters considered breakout candidates?
Tampa Bay already boasts one of MLB’s most potent offenses, but Karabell’s column suggests secondary bats like José Siri or Curtis Mead could join the elite tier by July’s end. The Rays’ lineup depth and recent performance make this scenario plausible.
What’s driving Tarik Skubal’s recent surge?
Skubal has posted a 1.98 ERA over his last eight starts, striking out 68 batters in 50 innings while walking just 12. His strikeout rate (32.1%) is elite, and his velocity has ticked up to 95.2 mph, fueling Karabell’s breakout thesis.
When should fantasy managers act on these trends?
Monitor Skubal’s next start—July 3 against the White Sox—and Tampa Bay’s series against the Orioles (July 5-7). If Skubal fans 10+ and the Rays’ offense continues its rampage, the July trade market will shift overnight.
Are these breakout candidates confirmed or still speculative?
Karabell’s column is speculative but rooted in recent performance. The Rays’ lineup depth and Skubal’s recent dominance provide a strong foundation for his breakout thesis, but nothing is guaranteed.
How should fantasy managers prioritize these targets?
Prioritize Skubal for his pitching upside and the Rays’ bats for lineup flexibility. If you’re in a league where pitching wins championships, Skubal’s surge could be the bigger play. Otherwise, the Rays’ offensive explosion offers more roster versatility.
